Where Things Stand in the Market as of Sunday, June 30th, 2024

Good morning investors and traders!

The stock market suffered a bearish reversal Friday despite improving inflation data. However, this aberration could have been due to the end of the half-year mark that sees institutional investors placing so-called “window dressing” portfolio trades to make their funds’ performances appear better. In reality, both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have remained strong. While the Nasdaq notched an intraday all-time high before retreating and finishing with a 0.2% loss, it turned in its ninth weekly gain out of the past 10. The tech-heavy composite ended the first half of 2024 up 18.1%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 also hit fresh highs before closing the session down 0.2%. It has managed a 14.5% gain so far this year.

Meanwhile, a lot of leading stocks are extended and exhibiting uncertainty, so caution remains the watchword. At his point, a market pullback would be a healthy development. This upcoming week, look for the release of the minutes of the most recent FOMC meeting on Wednesday and the ADP and Labor Department jobs reports for June on Wednesday and Friday. In the wake of last week’s core PCE inflation data, the now sees 62% odds of two quarter-point rate cuts this year, down from 63.5%. A reminder that earnings season is now only 2 weeks away. Some analysts use the runup to earnings season to upgrade or downgrade certain stocks, so be aware of this.